A SYSTEM IN DISARRAY

• 

You sometimes wonder whether it would be best to discontinue 'the Pattern', so amok and out of control it now is. Erratically mismanaged, it has morphed into something which clearly had not been intended when it was first introduced in 1971.

The original concept was to grade the races at the top end of the spectrum with the Group 1 events being given the seal of approval as the creme de la creme of the thoroughbred world, being the races that would be globally recognised as such and the ones which would go some way to deciding on what level a stallion would begin his new career.

For it to work though, checks and balances would have to be put in place whereby the races would be continually scrutinised and reassessed when necessary. The intention of this was that, for example, if a Group 2 race continually produced winners that were rated above average for the level of contest, then the race would be considered for elevation in grade.

Likewise, a Group 1 event that was being won routinely by horses who were otherwise not cutting the mustard at that level would be considered for downgrade. It was intended that the numbers were kept manageable and a balance sought in the number of upgraded and downgraded events. Changes were not to be made too hastily.

For a short while, the races were governed as planned, though there was one change that raised many eyebrows. This being the decision to move the King's Stand Stakes down a notch to Group 2 in 1988, while the race known then as the Vernon's Sprint Cup went the other way. It was seen in some quarters as a move to give flat racing in the North a boost, but there was no justification for downgrading the Ascot event.

The King's Stand Stakes probably generated more of a buzz than even the July Cup and Nunthorpe. It would be the first opportunity for the three-year-olds to take on the older sprinters. Some like Godswalk and Solinus where dyed in the wool sprinters who were never considered as Guineas prospects. Others, like Marwell, had failed to last home at Newmarket and were reverting back down in trip. In Marwell's case, who had been beaten in Fairy Footstep's Guineas, she had dropped down successfully in trip in the Gus Demmy at Haydock before lining up at Ascot.

Taking a look at the preceding ten years leading up to the Ascot event being demoted, the roll of honour, in addition to Marwell, included Solinus, Double Form, Habibti, Never So Bold and Last Tycoon.

For the same period, the Haydock race could also boast Habibti and Double Form, in addition to Moorestyle, Green Desert and Ajdal. There wasn't much in it. The Ascot race was showing no signs of fading, the Haydock event was producing winners of a similar quality. 

Mindful of the cautious spirit of which the whole system was intended, here was a rare case where there was a solid foundation to upgrade the Vernons without demoting any of the other three Group 1 sprints.

Fast forward the clock to this week and you see how it has all gone pear-shaped. Blue Point's King Stand victory yesterday was helped by the fact that Equilateral and Sioux Nation have the Commonwealth Cup to run in, while if Blue Point runs again in the Diamond Jubilee on Saturday, he will face amongst others, Harry Angel, Redkirk Warrior and Merchant Navy who were not in the King's Stand.

Admittedly, this is not a wholly fair argument. The fact that there are now three Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot ( the King's Stand reverted to the highest grade in 2008) helps entice the foreign raiders. But a fair appraisal of the changes would have to arrive at the conclusion that the original King's Stand generated more anticipation, a better field and with it a superior winner on average than what the race produces now allied with the other two events.

The Golden Jubilee was originally the Cork and Orrey, an event that may have suited Equilateral if connections did not want to take on the field in what could have been a  King's Stand brimming with quality. The Commonwealth Cup lays on relatively easy Group One pickings for three year olds and delays the generation clash in the sprinting division, which was one of the most interesting aspects of the meeting.

Globally, the Pattern system has gone out of control on a larger scale than here. Australia a prime example where it's nothing short of chaos. There are also many soft Grade 1 turf events in the States. In fact, when they upgraded the likes of the Sun Chariot and Falmouth Stakes, and the Gilltown come Matron Stakes, and Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland, they cited that the older fillies and mares were being prised away Stateside by their generous programme of Grade 1 Mares and Fillies events.

Another area to consider when looking at some dubious upgradings are the races that were originally used as seasonal debut events, stepping stones to the first big challenge of the season. The Lockinge Stakes and Ballymoss Stakes come Tattersall Rogers Gold Cup, are prime examples of this and still very much emit a feel of being prep events as opposed to the real thing. It matters not the names of the winners, more so the circumstances of the victories. A few fit and ready Group 2 or 3 performers, against a not fully wound up top-notch performer.

Supporters of the new relaxed approach would point out that old way was frugal. For example, the Prince of Wales like the Tattersalls Rogers, was more of a trial for the Eclipse and King George V1 Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes, not receiving top status until 2000. Another point to bear in mind was that the Coronation Cup was already in the top status, but emanated the feeling, and still does, as more of a trial for the mid-summer events.

And for the three-year-olds who had been competitive in the English and Irish Guineas but who were true milers, the St James Palace Stakes, like the Coronation Stakes, did not become a Group 1 until 1988. Hard to believe that when Brigadier Gerard won it in the first season of the Pattern, that when Kris beat Young Generation in 1979, and when To Agori Mou beat King's Like their first grudge rematch when Greville Starkey gave the two finger sign to Pat Eddery, it was still a Group 2.

Finally, no matter how much the original intention was to keep to a strict monitoring of the races and re-asses only when sure, there are some events that would never have and never will be downgraded. The Ascot Gold Cup and St Leger are two prime examples. They've both had many winners that fall below genuine performers of the highest level but are untouchable. 

If you want to be cynical you can cite the Goodwood Cup, upgraded mainly to reward the sponsors prize money boost, a consideration not in the original 'handbook', is also a buffer in the sense that if in the unlikely circumstances they changed direction and began to prune these races, the Goodwood Cup would be there to be demoted before the Ascot event.

Perhaps the biggest sufferer of the free for all Group One world is the King GeorgeV1 and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes which was the mid-summer jewel in the crown but is a race that has lost its edge for those over a certain age.

In reality, there is no going back now as too many powerful worldwide factions in the breeding industry would simply not permit it to happen. But one still can't help take much of this grading with a pinch of salt. 

For just like when the football stats crunchers compare the Champions League with the old European Cup and announce that so and so has broken his club's record for the number of appearances in the competition, we can give little credence to tallies of Group 1 successes, whether it be from horses, owners, trainers or jockeys.

THEY NEVER SAW IT COMING

" Bookmakers- Do They Owe Us A Living ?" was the headline on the cover page of the June 1988 edition of Pacemaker International, also billed as the Royal Ascot issue.

For the timeworn who were bitten by the racing bug during the dizzy 1970's, 1988 does not feel like thirty years ago, which is a big dent in most lifetimes. Yet when you digest the article relating to the headline, you are left feeling pretty glum on realising how the racing landscape has changed for the worse.

The article was penned by Geoffrey Wheatcroft, known mostly as a political journalist. He takes the reader through the legalisation and development of off-course betting, suggesting that an opportunity of an off-course Tote Monopoly, which had been called for by many within the sport, had been missed.

At the time, the then 'big four' controlled 56% of turnover from the off-course market. Wheatcroft argued that the LBO cash betting industry was not suitable for privatisation and called for full Tote control but ends his piece  with,"So obvious, so rational is this answer that you can be sure it will never happen."

What is so eerie about the article is that there is no mention of any lurking threat from the betting habits of punters switching to other sports. In fact, so cocksure were all that Horse Racing would continue to be the truly dominant sport for betting, no one had any real notion of the scale in which changes would happen.

During this time racing held 85% of the betting market. Football fixed odds still had an open long list of a minimum of five selections. There was a short list of a minimum three but that was made up of the tricky fixtures. On the long list, it was customary to have Aberdeen and Liverpool as banker homes but that still left you with three or four to find.

In Tennis and Golf there were no betting markets outside of the majors. The cricket markets too were far away from the crazy amounts now wagered on the shorter formats of the game along with any England home test series. All very understandable when you consider that the wall to wall Sky Sports coverage was a few years off its birth.

The struggle racing now faces compared to 1988 is mass, with threats from more angles and in an era where we have a generation of young fathers who themselves have not been weaned on racing and view Football as the main betting sport which it undoubtedly now is for the under 35's.

Compare the blase approach of those that pulled the strings in racing in the 1980's with the leaders in the modern-day US Golf industry, which is the heartland for that sport.

They've been panicking! Nike's decision to stop making golf clubs was viewed by some as a shot across the bows for the sport, allied with a trend of less of the public playing the game.

But look closer and you will see that it is a sport holding its ground well in the tier of major sports. The number of youths playing the sport has increased and many people across the whole age spectrum who have yet to play the sport proper are using the indoor chain of Topgolf facilities, which suit working families whose luxury time is limited.

In addition to this, crowd attendance figures on the PGA Tour have increased, and the introduction of Golf to the Olympics is helping develop the game in the likes of China, India and Brazil, the first two named countries having already shown they can produce winning players on the main two tours.

So in Golf, we have a sport looking inwardly and fretting, seeking to reverse possible trends that could be bad for the sport before they take hold. Compare this to racing in the 1980's. An attitude of we are all fine and dandy apart from being able to arrive at a long term compromise of how much each sector of the industry should receive of the punter's money.

With FOBTS soon to be neutered and significant LBO closures certain, the most telling statistics going forward are from remote gaming. This method of betting will eventually take over as the main source, being the method used almost exclusively by the emerging generations. At the latest count this form of betting accounted for over a third of all gross gambling yield.

Breaking down the gross gaming yield from remote gambling into the different sports, Football has gone into a clear lead over Horse Racing and is opening up a gap. True, there is then some distance back to the rest but soon, that group clubbed together will catch up with racing.

Unlike these other sports, racing relies on betting to survive. It cannot continue on its present scale without the punter's money. That is an agreed fact.

Trainer George Baker was the other day bemoaning that racing has been left behind by clinging to tradition, no doubt not taking time to think that maybe the chipping away at the old customs and traditions of the sport are actually demeaning it and slowly taking away one of its unique attractions.

Baker commented that new racegoers see people in trilby's and feel they are back in Victorian times. Regrettably, such quaint sights are rarer than in the past.

Such a spectacle would be the norm in the 1970's. There were far more 'Majors' and 'Captains' amongst the training ranks. They prefered to be addressed as such. There were more grumpy looking trainers, even more with ruddy complexions and drink problems, and of course, the customary nicotine stained hands to go with the chain smoking.

Now, the archetypal trainer will be called by his first name, does not smoke or drink excessively, eats lots of fruit and has his cholesterol checked.

Well, in this depressing modern day existence where an increasing number of young people speak to one another in silly MTV presenter style tones and ridiculously call each other 'bro', first time visitors to a racecourse would hopefully be fascinated by the sight of the licence holders who still adhere to the old fashioned dress codes.

They may even take time out between visits to find out who these people are and what horses they are connected to. There still exists an attraction of going back into a time warp, away from the quick fix banality of the present.

When you contemplate some of the ideas put forward to increase the popularity of the sport it provides scant hope for the future and makes people of a certain age feel sure that they have seen the best of it.

And from now on it's all a downhill journey save the odd blip.

image - attribution not required

AN EVENT IN THE SHADOW OF ITS PAST

It was pleasing to see the ITV racing coverage of Epsom acknowledge and pay respect to Sir Ivor, who had won Derby fifty years previous. Less favourable that they only show the finish of these great renewals when they go into the archive.

One can understand that there are time restraints, that full race replays would not be possible if they wanted to show Peaty Sandy winning the Eider Chase, but I'm sure they could have found time for full replays of some past runnings of the Epsom classic.

Sometimes you need to watch the race gradually unfold to fully put into perspective the merit of these performances. And if you take out all the ' filler ' time in these shows along with the unnecessary nonsense and customary jazzed up stuff to attract this imaginary new audience waiting to be won over, they would be able to find a few slots if there was a will to do so.

Let no one be fooled by this reported increase in the TV audience. The figures remain poor compared to the numbers watching as recently as a decade ago and the mini-spike up from the previous year was due to viewers beginning to settle down for the England football match which kicked off forty-five minutes after the race on the same channel.

It brings it home how the importance of a once great national sporting event and a once equally great nationwide sport has declined markedly when you hear Epsom based trainer Simon Down agree that many people living around Epsom high street would be unaware that what some still look upon as a worldwide renowned event, was approaching. No doubt they knew all about the upcoming England match though. It is a sad state of affairs.

Ten years on from Sir Ivor the event was still enormous compared with today. Still seventeen years away from the regretful moving of the event to a Saturday, the 1978 running looked wide open and twenty-five runners took their chance. Only Captain Ryan Price trained more than one runner, Obraztosovy and Whitshead, both owned by Harry Demetriou, the only owner with more than one runner.

The race famously went to Shirley Heights in the Lord Halifax colours, Greville Starkey storming up the inside of Bill Shoemaker, who was carrying the Robert Sangster silks on Hawaiian Sound, to win by a narrow margin. Incredibly, Reg Hollinshead trained the third home, Remainder Man. The horse's best contribution to the sport would be to go on and sire the celebrated steeplechaser One Man.

Like this year, the favourite would be Ballydoyle based, the Lester Piggott ridden Inkerman who arrived with far less solid foundations than Saxon Warrior. Other links with the present would be Michael Stoute having his first Derby runner with the William Hill owned Hill's Yankee.

With the Down's packed and the inside rail up the straight lined with those customary but nostalgic open buses, it was still very much an occasion to savour wherever you watched it from, read about it all, and had that ritual head-on photograph as the winner passed the post etched into your memory.

When we go into post-Epsom Derby reflection mode and prophesise whether this will be an ordinary, up to standard, or outstanding renewal, we do so by trying to single out winners from the past with similar profiles. This is one of the comforting attractions of this sport, bringing the past alive and making it relevant to the present.

What is disquieting though is when we have a winner that falls out of the main profile groups. It happened with Dr Devious. He had finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby a few weeks previous. A Churchill Down's also ran proving superior in our showcase event. Another aspect that made him unusual was that he was sired by a sprint handicapper come sprint Group horse.

Then Lammtara. One run as a juvenile in August 1994 for the late Alex Scott, then lining up at Epsom without any prep race. The unsettled feeling not helped by that being the first time the race had been moved to it's new Saturday slot. A mark of changing times for the worse.

Shaamit followed the trend a year later, winning without having a prep race in the current year. The race was taking a new course and felt less significant than it had done as we reached the middle of that decade.

Since the millennium the race has had a fair run. While in line with the declining importance of the sport it is a race that barely is noticed by anyone other than racing fans, with the indifferent including a high number of people who would label themselves as sports fans, it has thrown up some cracking winners, the still under appreciated Sea The Stars being the best of them.

Unfortunately, Masar is one that generates unease among the traditionalists. Masar ran in the UAE Derby earlier in the season. We have come to pigeonhole most of the three years olds that run over at that meeting as animals who are not going to be players in the events that truly matter.

True, Masar was well beaten on the synthetic surface over there unlike those who put up visually taking displays then prove wanting when pitted against the best back in Europe, but being 'hard fit' and looking more exposed than most, he looked a horse who had already fulfilled most of his potential.

Masar's  triumph marks an upturn in the fortunes of the Godolphin operation that has consistently been put in the shadow by the Ballydoyle/Coolmore operation, who despite dominating on a scale which cannot be good for the sport, keep their numbers limited and manageable, and operate at a profit in stark contrast to the middle eastern outfit who for many years were buying up readymade horses as they were unable to nurture most of their own into top class performers.

In fact, all of the other major, established operations such as Juddmonte, HRH Aga Khan, the Wildenstein family, and the Wertheimers, have always kept a manageable number with emphasis on quality.

Hamdan Al Maktoum exempted,  the whole Godolphin operation and its branches have bought and produced in mass numbers. Long gone are the days when they would acquire readymade horses, many of whom had looked to have just about realised all of their potential, then habitually manage to conjure up an extensive amount of improvement out of them.

Many of these animals had their whole profile changed into something that could not have been envisaged. Swain had looked found wanting for pace and destined as an Ascot Gold Cup horse but they got two King George's and an Irish Champion Stakes out of him. He also famously went close in a Breeders Cup Classic.

Daylami was previously a high class miler who looked fully exposed. They turned him into an outstanding 1m2f to 1m4f performer, one of the best of the last twenty five years.

The Maktoum's investment in the sport has given careers to many in all aspects of the sport as well as sustaining many a trainer's operation, but there is undoubtedly a downside. For it can be no coincidence that the past couple of decades has seen many long standing, successful owner breeder operations disappear.

Who knows how many of these had family members in waiting to take over at the helm but considered it insurmountable in light of the lopsided balance of power that exists.

That you don't bite the hand that feeds is an expression that comes to mind when many in the racing community acclaim the victory of Masar as being good for the sport and profess to be happy for connections.

Image in public domain