A WARNING SIGN

It's that time of year when most who follow racing are switching to jumps mode. For those who view the All -Weather scene as an unwelcome infringement into the winter months, all things surrounding the summer game will be of secondary importance as we become buzzed up in anticipation as the opening developments of the National Hunt season unfold.

Regrettably, one ingredient that had become part and parcel of this time of year is missing. This is that celebrated Ten to Follow competition that reached its crescendo around twenty years back. We all know the one. Interest in it bordered on fanatical, the prize money funds were huge but within reach of your average Joe, as just like when a single line could beat the syndicate entries in the Scoop 6, the Ten to Follow competition would sometimes be won by someone with a single entry.

Many people will look back and associate the competition with the Racing Post but it was originally run by Pacemaker in the 1970's and 80's. There was no razzmatazz attached to it then. It just ticked along nicely and felt quite homely.

Every October the likes of Tim Fitzgeorge -Parker, Noel Winstanley and Michael Clower would speak to the trainers on behalf of the magazine to ask for a couple of recommendations. They were looking less for dark horses than nailed on big race winners. And it's likely for this exercise they rang rather than visited.

At the start of the 1978/79 season Eddie O'Grady believed that Jack of Trumps should,  "certainly of captured the public's imagination by the end of the season." Fred Winter thought that Ten Dollars More would be a chaser to follow and Kilwarren, a decent handicap hurdler, while Peter Eatserby revealed that his 1976 Lloyds Bank Hurdle winner Town Ship was back in training after leg trouble.

For the beginning of the 1984/85 season it was Clower and Martin Julian contacting the handlers. This time Fred Winter mentioned a dozen names. Apparently, Hazy Sunset was the apple of his eye. His long-standing Lambourn rival Fulke Walwyn revealed that Everett " disappointed me so much in the Gold Cup that I had him tested." I'm guessing in the case of Julian he would have visited rather than just dialled their numbers.

The competition gained prestige and grew too big for its foundations. The Racing Post took control in conjunction with the Tote and the participants and prize funds multiplied. Other sports then followed. Their fantasy competitions remain healthy and continue to thrive.

I doubt the masses that participate will be aware or really care that the idea  originated from horse racing. Like when a famous band steals a rhythm for a track from a beneath the radar outfit, those other competitions pilfered their idea from the horse racing version. 

The horse racing one died a death a few years ago. It was not continued with soon after Betfred took control of the Tote but was on the slide in any case. In fact when the announcement was made in 2014 that the competition would cease, the reason cited was 'falling entry levels'.

Similar, smaller versions live on here and there but there does not exist the enthusiasm that the original one was met with at its peak.

This is most concerning for the true barometer for measuring the popularity of the sport in this country is to determine the following that National Hunt racing has once the cult racegoers are separated from the rest. And it is not unreasonable to conclude that when an event that was the domain of the enthusiastic followers perishes owing to lack of interest, then genuine engagement with the sport has fallen.

No matter how much we endear ourselves to the Sea The Stars and Frankels of the horse racing world, they do not draw in the same level of public engagement as a Bula, Night Nurse, Desert Orchid or Denman.

What it boils down to is that if the popularity of the jumping greats is declining, then there is a hell of a lot to be worried about. It is this sphere of the sport that first cements an individual following.  As an example, if someone took an interest in the sport after watching the Grundy versus Bustino duel, they would then have that interest locked in by the likes of Lanzarote, Captain Christy and Collingwood.

A disturbing aspect of this to consider is the likely average age of the enthusiasts who took part in the competition two decades back as the suspicion is that many have passed away and not been replaced.

In truth, given the current climate where the rival sports receive competent wall to wall coverage, it should not be a surprise that the emerging generations have not become smitten by the sport.

The welfare issue is often cited in the wrong context by individuals within the sport who don't think before making cliched comments. The general public do not ponder over issues involving horse racing and those who may in a different climate have actively been involved in anti-racing campaigns are quite rightly directing their angst towards matters involving pollution and climate change.

As an example, some may have heard about the petition started by Animal Aid in which they called for the running of the sport to be taken from the hands of the BHA and put under the control of an independent body. The petition reached 105,000 signatures, passing the 100,000 mark required to be considered for parliamentary debate, but when you consider that Animal Aid has a clique following, with over 80,000 followers on Twitter alone, the number supporting the petition is not particularly high given that followers of the organisation almost certainly put their name to all the petitions.

Maybe we should take more notice of a change.org  Petition opened seven months ago to ' ban horse racing in the UK and Ireland before more horses purposelessly die.' To date, this has been signed by just short of 1,800 individuals. Hardly alarming.

And what of the one with similar aims opened by an individual through gov.com which was closed yesterday. It had run its course of six months and required ten thousand signatures to take the issue to Parliamentary debate. The number of individuals who signed? A magnificent 47!

If anyone listened to the views of everyday people that don't frequent university campuses or loiter in anarchist bookshops, they will find that apart from the 'cult' tracks being used now and again as the location for a works day out, the nitty-gritty of the sport neither concerns or appetises them.

If the generation that fervently followed the sport as adults during the 1970's have now almost gone, what of their successors who have failed to endear themselves to the sport in the same numbers and who have children of their own?

From whatever angle you view it and however much they paper over the cracks, this is a sport whose future is far from secure. No reasonably minded person could possibly think otherwise. It is a pressing concern.

THE INSANE WAITING GAME

To many long-term racing fans the biggest appeal the sport holds is that it can be broken down into several components that individually all have a considerable and fascinating depth. It would not be wrong to say that if the sport came to a halt and was disbanded, there would still be enough material to disect, reassess and reflect over for many lifetimes.

As time races away, people we are acquainted with in our own age groups become ill more frequently and die more frequently. In racing, developments take longer to unfold than in most other sports and you tend to feel it will be somewhat futile to take an interest in areas of the sport in which you may not live to see the end result.

National Hunt breeding, in particular, is one such area. Sometimes, stallion masters or individual breeders who on looks appear to be nearer the mark of ninety-five years of age than past the point of sixty-five years of age will express the hopes they have for their new stallion becoming a success in the National Hunt arena.

To appreciate the length of time span involved, if you made an upbeat announcement now about your new dual-purpose stallion that would start covering next season, it would be 2028 when the first crop reached eight years of age, a point at which you could reasonably start to give a fair progress report in the sense that the chasing types would be in their second or third year over the larger obstacles.

Why do so many who look so ancient be so enthusiastic over a development they realistically may not live to see ? Even those a couple of decades younger would also consider that there is some doubt that they too could look so far ahead?

In this sense, it makes you respect the environmentalist freaks who selflessly strive to improve the health of the environment but accept that if their efforts are successful they will not be here to enjoy the results.

What is absurd about breeding for the National Hunt game is that the merit of many stallions is not realised until it is too late. In contrast to the Flat where the turnaround process is quicker and stallions whose progeny have not sold well and have been sent packing to some lower tier racing nation can still have their careers reversed when their offspring defy expectations and perform well on the track,  time will often have ran out in the winter game.

For every one of the Coolmore National Hunt stallions who are afforded slick marketing resulting in massive initial books and more than a fair crack of the whip, there are those covering small books at the smaller studs and who are not presented with the opportunities their credentials deserve.

Look at Tamure. He was the colt who looked to have the 1995 Epsom Derby in the bag until Lammtara came out of the clouds to steal the glory from him. Ironically enough, another Gosden colt, Presenting, who would be destined to make waves in the National Hunt breeding arena filled the next place behind him.

Tamure performed credibly in his three remaining races that season, which included beating Spectrum in a Group 3 in  France but after the season finished was not seen again until running down the field in Helissio's 1996 Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe.

After five mixed performances in 1997 he was put in the Horses In Training Sales and purchased by the prominent Italian owners Scuderia Rencati for incredulously no more than it would cost for an average household to install a new bathroom and kitchen along with windows and modernised central heating.

Having acquired their Derby runner-up with a stallion's pedigree, they transferred their purchase to Luca Cumani for the 1998 season where two disappointing runs came on either side of winning a Listed race at Haydock Park.

Although Tamure had now blotted his profile since the end of his three-year-old year, he looked an interesting proposition as a National Hunt stallion. He should have also been marketable.

As things turned out he stood for several seasons at the Beech Tree Stud in Somerset, at a fee of £2,000 from 1999 to 2004, reduced to £1,500 thereafter which he continued to be advertised at to his final season of 2014.

There was little demand for his services. Nineteen individual runners on the flat, and eighty-seven over jumps  - a small amount when broken down into the sixteen years that his stud career lasted. His winning runners to progeny representing him ratio in both spheres was over 40% which is acceptable if not outstanding, but too small sample a sample to draw conclusions. Irrespective, there are still reasons for believing that he may have been one they let get away.

The small number to represent him include last season's Rowland Meyrick winner Get On the Yager, prolific point to point winner Ask The Weatherman, Grade 1 novice hurdle winner Bitpofapuzzle, and Greatwood Gold Cup winner Thomas Crapper.

We can never know what would have happened if he'd been marketed like, for example, Phardante, a horse that had over seven hundred representatives on the course but with Trucker's Tavern the nearest thing to a star to boast of. And his winners to runners rate was relatively moderate even allowing for the large number of representatives he had.

It's a very peculiar area of the sport. For some, like Gunner B, errors of judgement have been picked up on early and resultant decisions reversed. In his case, he was packed off to Germany when unable to attract a supportable number of mares only to be brought back and stood at the Shade Oak Stud after his progeny began to sparkle.

As it turned out, he was undoubtedly one of the best National Hunt sires of his generation. Despite not having the numerical representation of many of his contemporaries he sired amongst others Iris's Gift, Red Marauder, Bobby Grant, Swingit Gunner. and not least the Champion Hurdle and Ascot Gold Cup winner Royal Gait, the animal chiefly responsible for his return to this country.

He was a horse I had a soft spot for having seen him winning the Cecil Frail Handicap at Haydock Park in 1976 by a wide margin. He had on his previous run been placed in the Mecca Dante. Now figure that path out, it's not a race to race 'progression' you'd see now.

He was then under the care of  Beverley handler Geoff Toft. The next time I saw him he was with Henry Cecil two years later, coming off second best to Hawaiin Sound in the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup, this after winning the Eclipse. He must have been some cert at Haydock that day !

So at a time when we are switching to jumps mode, building our mental lists of horses, yards and stallions to keep on the right side of, I think I'll pay attention to Schiaparelli (pictured).

In 2007 I saw him in his pre-Godolphin days winning both the Deutschlandpreis at Dusseldorf and the Preis Von Europa at Cologne, both Group 1 events. Even an untrained eye could appreciate that he had size and depth. Moreover, he is by Monsun whose sons are building a highly successful profile in jump racing.

Just like you could have forsaken the bathroom, kitchen and new central heating to buy Tamure, the fee for a visit to Schiaparelli is presently two grand, the cost of a long travel holiday. Of course, you'll need a mare and though he's standing at the Overbury Stud, his books are not large enough yet for them to be picky.

There is insufficient evidence to assess Schiaparelli in his new career, that will take a few years yet. However, he already has a  few promising types in training and plenty more to come and with it the size of his books should increase.

Mind you, by the time you've moved from house to flat to give a little kitty and reduce living costs, then secured regular overtime in the day job, then gone about being able to secure a mare on the cheap with reasonable boarding costs, found a couple of partners if you plan to put the animal into training, you then have to look at that time span from booking the stallion to when the progeny reach their estimated peak, assuming the animal in question is lucky enough to be born free of disability, to stay sound, and run at least fast enough to keep itself warm

You then wonder whether you'll still be alive and if so whether you'll be healthy enough to understand and care. Faith and dedication will guarantee nothing.

image - prior to the 2007 running of the Deutschlandpreis - taken by author

JUST A SUPPORTING ACT

The Queen single Now I'm Here, taken from arguably their best album Sheer Heart Attack, is about Brian May's experiences when the band supported Mott The Hoople on a US 1974 tour. That they were subordinate to a band many have half forgotten about reminds one that influence is never static, that no perch is ever secure.

On Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day in 1975, horse racing was far off being swamped and crowded out by the other major sports. That its significance is now on a lower perch that could ever of been envisaged is there to see in how the coverage of the race compared to what was taking place in the now magnificently promoted world of Formula One.

On Sunday 5th October 1975, Ferrari driver Niki Lauda secured the first of his three driver's world championships in winning the USA Grand Prix at Watkins Glen. The time difference meant the event took place a few hours after the dust settled at Longchamp. But unlike this week we would of only known that the Grand Prix was approaching by a couple of columns in the sports pages of the daily newspapers. Indeed, apart from the British Grand Prix, it was custom to have to tune into Radio Two on a Sunday evening for the result.

The sports pages of the dailies may have included a black and white picture of the winning car taken during the race though grimly, the only time you could be certain that there would be a picture on the actual back page was when a driver was killed. In such circumstances we would pick up the paper to be met by a horrific image of the body of the driver being taken from the car, the burnt corpse usually plastered in melted materials.

For colour pictures of the race, you would have to purchase Motor Sport the following weekend. Needless to say, the in-house publications would act with dignity in showing more respect when tragedies occurred, choosing not to follow the path of the dailies.

It is hard for anyone now to believe that this is how the coverage of the two sports once compared. Racing had never had it easier, we all now had colour televisions and racing performed on a stage shared by only a few other sports

Set that against the present. The build-up to the Japanese Grand Prix has been covered on the news channels all week. Sky broadcast the event in fine detail with their competent team. As usual a driver can't contract the hiccups without it being reported. Practice sessions, qualifying sessions, the build-up and post analysis of them is at our disposal.

The races are are covered with a skilled professionalism that arguably only the cricket coverage can match. If there is too much of it you can dip in and out. But by God it is driven into us all that this is a sport near the top of the pecking order and it is impossible to conduct your life and not be aware of who is who at the forefront of this sport.

Now, back to the 1975 Arc. Two of the best mares of that decade that still to this day deserve to be called all time greats in their category, lined up for the event.

Allez France, the 1974  winner of the race owned by Daniel Wildenstein and in the care of Angel Penna was hailed by Timeform  as 'one of the best racemares in our experience', the organisation adding that 'if we also rated horses on looks alone she would be near the top of our handicap too.' 

Dahlia won the King George V1 Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes twice and had recently won her second Benson and Hedges Gold Cup, the race where Grundy, looking far past his best, was last seen. She ran in the light and dark green check colours of oil billionaire Nelson Bunker-Hunt who was associated with a plethora of top-class horses during that period.,

Allez France's 1974 Timeform rating of 136 remains the shared best for a female racehorse, with Dahlia a pound behind. Incidentally, Enable received an impressive 134 in 2017, though a weights and measures look at the 2018 renewal suggests she will not have surpassed that.

Both mares finished unplaced with the race falling to the 119/1 German trained Star Appeal, who stormed through to win in visually striking style under Greville Starkey. The winner, who had taken the Eclipse Stakes a few months back, began his career in the hands of John Oxx senior but was now under the care of Theo Grieper, a name that evokes images of a character who wanders mysteriously around mist covered graveyards.

Among the also rans was the filly Nobiliary who had finished runner-up to Grundy in the Epsom Derby, the beaten Epsom Derby favourite Green Dancer who would go and be the stallion success from the race, the wide margin St Leger winner Bruni, and Ivanjica who would win the race the following year.

There was more in depth quality than the 2018 running though admittedly this year has seen an unusually ordinary crop of middle distance three-year-old colts in Europe. In short, classwise, it is widely accepted that the race overall produces the best field of thoroughbreds in the whole of the sport worldwide, defying the general reversal that the sport is suffering in many countries

The 1975 running would have been viewed by a considerably larger television audience than that which viewed this year's race. It was of course in the days of three television channels for all. We also could not have envisaged the arrival of wall to wall live football coverage that would have mopped up many potential passing viewers away from Longchamp.

The ITV team again came out with the ' if you happen to be watching for the first time' which is condescending if not insulting. Similarly to when Mark Johnson in a commentary the previous day felt it necessary to mention that ' they are passing the four marker which means there is half a mile left to run.'

Where are the surveys that lead the producers to believe that up and down the country a fresh audience sits patiently, waiting to be won over?

If curiosity got the better of you when watching the 1975 renewal you would have had to make more effort than now to satisfy your knowledge. The 'wanting to know more urge' may even have been stoked by Julian Wilson's method of talking to his audience in a manner which suggested he expected them to have the same knowledge and understanding of the sport as himself. 

There is something within this approach that instills a respect in you for the sport. Rather this than smug persona's, whether real or obeying employer's edict, talking down to you. There is likewise something satisfying by building up knowledge on your own accord.

This weekend, a smaller number of individuals than ever before would have been aware of a race called the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe being staged. And this, even taking into account that the winning rider, along with AP McCoy and John McCririck, are the only names many will know of in the sport. Anyone not believing this is a general truth should ask themselves why it is that when they mention the name Richard Johnson, they find themselves having to include the words 'champion jump jockey'.

There is no doubt that the influence of racing in the sporting world is on a lower perch then ever before. And the 'we'll change for you' path that is being taken by those put in the position to turnabout this trend is a futile one that will not be met with the response hoped for.

image - creative commons fair usage