AT THE CREST

The time arrives for a change of the guard in all sports. It's mostly a gradual but predictable process which ends when you step back and acknowledge the new order. In some cases the transition can happen in a surprisingly short time period.

Tiger Woods took grip of the golfing world very quickly, turning pro then beating Davis Love III in a play off weeks later to secure his first top level event, then straight to the number one ranking the following summer.

Sebastian Vettel took a few years of successive world championships to be accepted at the pinnacle of the pyramid, same with Lewis Hamilton who stepped into a competitive car at the start of his career and took a while to be accepted by the multitude of cynics. Ultimately the day would arrive when observers would quit with their ' pound for pound Alonso is the best'  claim and accept that the younger pair were now at the summit of their sport ability wise.

In football the change in the pecking order at the top often coincides when a player moves to one of the showcase clubs giving him the platform to perform at the highest level.  Being acclaimed pound for pound as the next coming is conjecture without stonewall solid evidence.

For racehorse trainers an Epsom Derby or  Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe victory will not get you there alone. The big races have to come from several horses, the success sustained.

In the British Isles there have been several candidates who have threatened to make the step up to the very highest stage but have been unable to secure their place. They hover in what could be termed the 'Barry Hills tier'.

Hills was a consistent high-class trainer from the days of Rheingold all the way through to his final classic winner Ghanaati. He held a trainer's licence for over forty years but he was never right at the very peak of the pyramid, though lasted longer than most who were. He saw many go past him and take the step up on to the highest table, then pass him again on their way down several years later.

A Barry Hills juvenile winning a back end two-year-old maiden would not get the publicity and hype than one hailing from the three or four showcase yards would receive. And while Robert Sangster was a great supporter and friend, the very best prospects would go to Vincent O'Brien, then later to Peter Chapple-Hyam. Just like in the early 1980's when Dunlop would have a better quality Maktoum family intake, and Jeremy Tree a better quality Khalid Abdullah intake. Still, after the Michael Dickinson Manton episode, it was his trusted pal Hills who Sangster brought in to clear up the mess.

Michael Stoute has held his seat in the highest room for many years. More recently he has on more than one occasion looked on his way down to the floor below only to confound the doubters.

In his first year with a licence in 1973, Stoute took the Ayr Gold Cup with Blue Cashmere. The numbers and quality began to increase. By the beginning of the 1977 season the owners included Gordon White of Ever Ready fame, Sir Charles Clore, Bob McCreery,  Baroness Oppenheim, Captain McDonald - Buchanan, the Duke of Devonshire and the William Hill organisation.

There was also Sven Hanson who owned a two-year-old filly he had purchased for 13,000 guineas at the Houghton Yearling Sales. By Petingo, she was named Fair Salinia and would go on to win the following years Epsom Oaks, the pivotal moment that made people sit up and take notice.

Going into the following year the Wigan family had a talented, game juvenile in the yard named Final Straw, who would train on to be involved in the big mile races as a three-year-old. The Loder family had the Mill Reef Stakes winner Lord Seymour, who raced in the colours that his famous full sister Marwell would soon carry. Lord Seymour had a big reputation but eventually fell short of expectations. Gordon White owned Hardgreen who ran in Troy's Derby. And there was Vaigly Great, one of the best sprinters in training during that year.

Shortly after it was announced that the Aga Khan was sending yearlings over to England to go into training. The trainers selected were Fulke Johnston-Houghton and Stoute. Amongst the first batch that Stoute inherited was a colt named Shergar.

So it was in 1981, led by Shergar and Marwell and supported by numerous other smart animals that Stoute reached the ceiling alongside M V O'Brien, Henry Cecil, Dick Hern, and Guy Harwood who had stepped up to the very top tier in tandem with Stoute. John Dunlop was close behind.

From this 'big four, Stoute is the only one to remain. Only A P O'Brien and John Gosden sit alongside. Charlie Appleby cannot be counted amongst the group yet. He is an in-house trainer for an organisation that those of us on the outside understand too little to decide where the credit lies for the upsurge in fortunes.

We must also remember that Gosden joined the high table later than many would be led to believe. For so long he was performing to no more of what would be expected given the quality of animal he was receiving. Even when Benny The Dip won the Derby, Gosden remained in that group directly below the top of the pyramid. And further on, when he guided the wonderful Oasis Dream to champion sprint honours in 2003, there were no other individual Group 1 winners for the yard during that season.

Having been successfully established in the States, Gosden came to Stanley House with a readymade yard, the core of which were Sheikh Mohamed owned. There was a steady drip of success but he was very much on the Barry Hill's level until as recently as the past half dozen years where everything has taken off up to a new level, star after star after star, the biggest prizes regularly plundered, something only the smug back fitters would say was to be expected.

Room at the pinnacle will be available soon. We have to take note of the ages of Gosden and Stoute, and how long they are going to go on for. Gosden is 67 years of age, Stoute approaching his 73rd birthday.

Luca Cumani had had one foot on the summit but despite training two Derby winners never truly had both feet in. Richard Hannon junior inherited his father's strongest ever team and was champion trainer, but overall he belongs on that floor one down. So does Roger Charlton. When he took over at Beckhampton, he was left the Epsom Derby winner that JeremyTree must have wished he stayed on for. In addition to Quest for Fame there was Sanglamore who would win the French Derby in the same year. Charlton operates consistently on a high class level just below that superclass bubble.

Andrew Balding kept Kingsclere ticking along at the level his father had in his final dozen or so years with high-grade animals appearing in turn but is having a terrific time of it this summer. Maybe he just has the inmates bouncing, but this is lasting for long enough to make you wonder if things are about to go up another level, particularly considering some of the youngsters are highly promising individuals.

William Haggas promised to go to the elite sphere after Shaamit had won the Derby relatively early in his training career but is rooted on the step below, while the one caution over Motivator's prospects going into 2005 was whether Michael Bell could be trusted to handle such a high quality colt. He came through with flying colours but the trainer's career has returned to the norm since.

David Loder was flirting with breaking through, both when 'Indie', and when being under full Maktoum family control. But Loder did not have the application. The support was always there but the words silver spoon in mouth and spoilt rotten come to mind when before one sabbatical he expressed that he wanted time to travel and explore the world.

The late Alec Stewart was a contender to reach the highest echelons. Just a few years in with a licence, he built a following with his handling of the magnificent  Mtoto. I can recall being at Haydock Park on a Friday evening in June 1986, Stewart and Sheik Ahmed Al Maktoum had made the journey. Mtoto obliged in the classily named Chipmobile Stakes. In his remaining races of that year, he looked between handicaps and Group class, and one who would be hard to place.

Then to the Brigadier Gerard the following season. A completely different beast with an electric turn of pace. That was the beginning of a heady spell at the top level for Mtoto, two Eclipse's, two Prince of Wales's, a King George, and so unlucky not to cap it off with a Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe success. All the time his emerging trainer's name was on the ascent

Starting the 1989 season with Mtoto retired,his Clarehaven yard numbered eighty six and he looked set to kick on upwards but despite being a thinking more than a scattergun placer of his horses, Stewart never even got near the Barry Hills tier, turning out an average of twenty or so winners in his final dozen years with a licence . Admittedly there were still some fleeting big races successes but the horses often did not seem right. It's not as if the numbers of inmates dropped dramatically, for example in his penultimate year when he trained twenty six winners, he had a yard of sixty five horses. He was of course very ill by this time.

Marcus Tregoning is another who looked set to kick on. Taking over the seat at Kingwood House Stables after the retirement of Dick Hern, he made an early impression with Nayef and Mubtaker. It was taken for granted that he would be playing at the top tier for years to come.

In 2004 and 2005, he started the season with over one hundred and thirty inmates, Danehills, Kingmambos, Danzigs, Sadlers Well's, they were all there. To say that his patrons had faith in him would be an understatement. It cannot be doubted that he was given the platform to showcase his talents, and despite hitting the heights with the 2006 Epsom Derby winner Sir Percy, failed to take advantage and has not trained a winner at the highest level since.

Mark Johnston is your flat equivalent of W.A Stephenson. Just like when you use to open a fresh copy of Horses In Training and would peruse the strings of at least half a dozen fellow jumping trainers before turning to Stephenson's entry, the Kingsley House team will never be the first you'd want to scan.

It is unlikely the Johnston modus operandi will ever change and he will forever be comfortable in his own unique niche.

Out of Hugo Palmer, Roger Varian, Ralph Beckett and Clive Cox,  we could put Varian in his old guvnor Michael Jarvis's mould. A seamless transition but it looks an operation that will remain just off the pinnacle for the foreseeable future.

The other three have all had Group one successes but the most curious fact is that out of the quartet Clive Cox, who has upgraded himself to this group from the basement and trained amongst others a Prince Of Wales Stakes winner who had started his career with Donald McCain jnr, is the only one without an Epsom Derby entrant for 2019.

He is wrongly being pigeonholed as a handler who can only excel with speedy types and needs that announcement that a big owner is sending him a number of yearlings with creme de la creme middle distance pedigrees. It would be the platform to show what he can really do, as it's nothing but pound for pound speculation at the moment.

Image - NASA/Josh Valcarcel and Bill Stafford