HOW CAN ANYONE BE SURE THEY'LL ALL COME BACK?

There is a tendency at the moment to take for granted that social habits will pick up where they left off as we emerge from what will hopefully be the last national lockdown. And it's clear that the stakeholders and decision makers in the UK horse racing industry are, as their succession of predecessors did to their cost, clearly taking the popularity of the sport they steer for granted.

This came to mind as I was conversing with an acquaintance who is a lifelong season ticket holder at a popular football club. He holds strong reservations whether those with season tickets will be happy to start coughing up considerable amounts of money again when the clubs begin making requests for the payments to restart.

He is adamant in his belief that many in his position have, like himself, lost the buzz for the modern, sanatised version of the game and are merely going through the motions when they turn up at each game. He points out that the enforced sabbatical will make many realise that they can live without the live match day experience, as well as appreciating the prospect of having extra money staying in their pockets in an uncertain climate.

This potential lack of engagement is something that has not been considered within racing as in light of this week's government announcement laying down a timeline for a return to normality, racecourses have been straight on to the chalkboard working out how to maximize their gains once all of the shackles are released.

They expect more than hope that if the lifting of restrictions unfold as planned, something nearing normal crowds would be back through the gates by July. They will be working out how best to negate potential hiccups with social distancing which although will be reduced back down to one metre, will still be in place in addition to checks on vaccination status, and a notable increase in the number of security staff.

They will similarly have realised that normal raceday routines of the attendees will lack flow as ordering food and drink, and visiting lavatories will be taking notably longer than they already do, something that could turn many off returning at future meetings.

What they haven't planned on is how to address the threat of indifference from those who pack out the summer cult venues and who they will be dependent on, more than ever before, of providing them with some financial relief.

The characters that make up these summer crowds are not as hardy or faithful as football season ticket holders. For starters, they are in the main day trippers out for a social gathering with most prefering other sports over horse racing, and many not really smitten by the sport at all. 

Their racecourse activity for the year may, for someone  based in the north, look something like, one Friday night and two Saturdays at Chester, two Saturdays at York, one Friday night and one Saturday at Haydock Park, one Saturday and one Bank Holiday at Ripon.

When they attend, they will eat and drink and generally enjoy themselves. And if they do return in the same numbers then given the outdoor space available at most venues, it's fair to guess that certain tracks will manage the large crowd conundrum well. It would be reasonable to assume that York will handle proceedings better than most with Newmarket another venue that will be on the ball.

Cartmell could be problematic given its crammed in holiday crowd, a similar dilemma possibly arising too with the Newton Abbott summer jumping fixtures, but common sense screams out that an outdoor sport with an outdoor crowd, staged in weather that is not conductive to spreading virus, is not going to give the sport a new spate of bad publicity.

However, should the sport be getting so ahead of itself?  For how can anyone be so sure that these summer crowds will attend in the same numbers once we approach something near to normality? Is it not reasonable to suspect that a day at the races will be a lower priority than before given that these are people who will have competing family responsibilities and who have been through a sustained period where their children will have suffered and who will be owed a list of promises and treats and days out, none of which will have anything to do with horse racing.

Older family members will be recipients of more dutiful visits and suddenly weekends have other chores or activities that take precedent over a trip with the lads on a charabanc to York. And this is without considering the competition from other sectors of the entertainment industry.

Look at it this way, whether it be a bowling competition on the property of a Scarborough hotel, the summer season comedian circuit passing through Rhyl, a theme park in the Midlands, a cider festival in a Bristol public park, or the Blackpool Airshow; organisers of such events will be on their toes already, valuating their post Covid wellbeing and looking ahead at ways of swiftly getting back on their feet, making their businesses more appealing to a wider customer base, many of whom who would fit the profile that the summer cult crowd racecourses pursue.

And if we get an Indian Summer, the tussle for the day tripping audiences who feel no long term attachment to the events they attend will continue on into September, with for racing, Doncaster's St Leger meeting being the last hurrah of the year for attendees indifferent to the sport on offer.

Anyone who doubts this should try attending a 21st century St Leger day. I have been in the stands watching the feature race itself, a part of the sport's fabric, and witnessed groups not aware or interested in what is evolving before them, many with drinks in hand with their back to the action, some listening to news of the latest footy scores.

That we can be fairly certain that while such sights would have been impossible to find when Lester hit the front on Nijinsky in 1970, they'd have been very noticeable as Camelot and Joseph O'Brien tried in vain to cut down Encke, tells us all we need to know about modern racing's core summer audience and the big mistake it would be to take their custom for granted.

image in public domain

This track from a most wonderful album that would have been bought and brought home to thousands of homes in the summer of 1972. The racecourse attendees would have been a different species to today, and many of the best horses they watched and enjoyed that summer trained by the likes of Noel Murless, Major Hern, Peter Walwyn,Arthur Budgett and Bernard van Cutsem, none of whom would have had this album amongst their record collections.

BOTH THE WRONG TIME AND WRONG PLACE FOR EXPERIMENTING

If the twelve months that have gone by since odds were being offered on whether Cheltenham 2020 would go ahead feel like they've flashed past in a blur, then the coming year will be more of the nonsensical same, the difference being for racing that it will finally face its first stages of judgement day as the extent of the financial damage inflicted by the plague from March to March will be measurable.

And it gets even gloomier as the initial hit is only that - the stakeholders within the sport will then experience further trepidation as the second, inevitable blast of the fall out will follow. We can be sure of this as we already know that the social distancing measures that severely limit racecourse capacities will remain in place for the remainder of the calendar year,

We likewise already know that those venues that sold their souls completely to the cult summer attendees will have empty piggy banks if the situation does not return to normal by springtime. Added to this are the courses who have part embraced the business mode of cashing in on the party crowds - they will feel the affect of further restrictions but will be able to survive, with Ascot, York, Newbury and Newmarket being prime examples of this category.

There was once a time when Chester would have fitted snuggly in this resilient category but unfortunately it changed direction many years ago and its future is shackled to its ability to pull in the cult crowds. Not surprisingly this racecourse already has a mapped proposal to unlock the gates to an audience come the opening May meeting.

Come to think of it, when racing was shut down in the UK following Midlands Grand National weekend on the back of Cheltenham week, Chester racecourse were the first pushing for a response as to whether crowds would be able to return for the May 2020 meeting. Then, on realization that for the foreseeable future they would have to race without a crowd, they cancelled the meeting citing the main reason as not being able to control social distancing on the street which offers free, first class viewing from the wall.

They eventually resumed racing to an empty arena in September but this was only after an arrangement had been secured for the streets and footpaths directly around the Roodeye to be closed from 11.30am to 6.30 pm.

The course chief executive Richard Thomas later announced that if the government made a clear statement to the effect that if there was no prospect of audiences being allowed back in 2021, they would have no choice but to mothball the venue in its capacity as a racecourse for the whole season.

This makes it all the more baffling that the course management are bullish about their proposal of being able to manage a crowd of 5,000 for its first meeting, now only two and a half months away. With the course using its facilities as a vaccination centre from this week, this has given them encouragement that they can run a race day operation where the attendees are are given Covid 19 tests with a twenty minute turnaround time.

In addition to the crowd size being a fraction of the usual number and therefore non profit producing for the course, common sense declares that the result will be messy bordering on farcical when you examine what they have proposed.

Those who have secured tickets will be given a time to arrive and entry point, with arrival time staggered meaning that some would be forced to access the course unreasonably early, with some others having to loiter nearby before arriving at a time where there will be no opportunity to settle in.

Even those arriving at a midway time will still have to go through the process of the Covid testing, then wait at least twenty minutes to be given the all clear. Presumably, they will have to stay in a designated area as they wait for the all clear and will be 'watched' by some characters with big egos who have been given temporary contracts for the meeting, some of whom will be revelling at the short term power they hold and may even have picked up an attitude from viewing too many episodes of The Sweeney.

Let's presume a racegoer is vetted and proven free of Covid. They will then make their way to their designated area where they will remain and probably have a numbered seat in the stands from where they will view the action, along with nominated tables to go to where they can order food and drink, and though it's not yet clear, be able to place bets through employees of Chester Bet who will likely be walking around with hand held machines.

Of the declining number of genuine fans who make appearances at this venue, most will not be jamming the phone lines for tickets to put themselves through this arrangement. There will be no freedom to wander over to the paddock, a miserable restriction when there could be future classic winners on show in  the Vase, Dee and Cheshire Oaks, or the build up in excitement as the paddock fills out prior to the Cup. I am also guessing that these designated areas will also forbid a stroll over to the rails to watch a race close up.

Then, you have those that a cult attendee course like Chester goes out of its way to court. They are the characters that form the throng of the cult crowds, completely on a different planet to the genuine fans. These too will feel shackled, not because they have any urge to see the juveniles in the paddock before the Lily Agnes, but because they desire face to face social contact, touching, play acting, shouting and dancing, and relishing a feel of freedom as they let off steam and enjoy themselves in the cult course attendee way.

If they know what the day entails they will not be turning up - if they haven't done their homework and expect something near to normality they will be in for a let down and as the alcohol is consumed this could result in some flashpoints as it will be next to impossible to control social distancing.

For those who actually have a feel for this sport, the May meeting stands head and shoulders above all the others, linking with the York Dante meeting the following week as the jigsaw for the Epsom classics are pieced together. It is in a different dimension to the mainly trashy fare the course has added to the fixture list down the years. And while we would love to see it go ahead, for this year at least it may be wise if the gates were kept firmly shut.

image from Pixabay

This track from an album with no weak tracks was released the week before 17 year old apprentice Alan Cressy rode Eric to beat the Piggott ridden favourite Irvine in the 1972 Chester Cup. Future star jumping sire Celtic Cone ran in the race. There would have been no stupid marquees blocking the view of racing fans and no cult attendees. This album is testimony to how exhilarating the sound of the guitar can be. The modern day cult attendees would be most unlikely to recognize or appreciate quality music.

DO YOU FENCE SIT OR TAKE SIDES?

When that attempted mega coup was in the process of unfolding, typically away from the spotlight of the showcase meeting, many would have been juggling conflicting views around in their own minds, wondering whether they should take sides.

One can understandably be inclined to hope the coup comes unstuck, after all logic dictates that it is the punters who are being cheated by a carefully planned sleight of hand operation - don't be fooled by bookies PR spokesman saying they would have no qualms about paying out and that each horse's chance was there to see if you went back through the history of each animal involved - the bookmaking industry is having a revolver held to its head at the moment as the prospect of affordability checks threaten the very existence of the trade. Refusing pay outs in high profile situations would not win it any much needed allies.

No, make no mistake, if this was forty or fifty years ago the chances are they would have withheld payment definitely, if not forever. Anyone thinking that this sounds ridiculous will not be old enough to remember the famous Rochester greyhound coup in the late 1970's, when two dogs were backed in doubles after having failed to demonstrate their true ability in time trials after being brought over from Ireland where they raced under different names, prior to legally having them changed - it was a far more painstaking task to trace the history of dogs or horses with similar profiles then, far from the quick pressing of a few buttons which can carry out the task now.

In short, the coup was arguably less murky than the part successful one carried out last weekend. It was estimated that £350,000 was the owed payout, the equivalent to just over £2 million in today's money. However, the bookmakers refused to pay out. In response there was a campaign carried out by a 'glue gang' who would fill the locks of targeted betting offices prior to opening time on high turnover days such as Saturdays and Bank Holidays. The money was  never paid out though the firms hit by the ' glue gang' later stated that they would have been better off doing so - which makes one think that a hell of a lot of locks must have been glued up to cause a shortfall in profits of a sum equating to a modern day £2 million!

Returning to last weekend -  while it did not appeal to financially join in at measly odds on animals that had been chalked up at fancy prices in the morning, if your line of thinking supports the opposite side of the court and those behind the audacious coup, you may have been influenced by your thoughts returning to those times when money was taken from us by the other side who had as good as factual knowledge that would present us with zilch opportunity of getting any return - the source of this  factual knowledge not being able to be gleaned by those not privy to the full details of the ante- post market on a race until the betting exchanges arrived on the scene.

By golly it was an eye opener to those who had never been responsible for an ante- post market for the punters when the exchanges told us who the non runners would be long before they were confirmed as such by connections - this is not referring to the ambigious ones were the exchange layers may be offering 22's on something generally priced up at 12's for the Workingham two weeks before the event. This is referring to the horse generally available at a consistent price in the books only to be available to decent money at four or five times the price on the exchanges.

It's almost certainly a non runner, the books know so but price it up as a player so punters will back it in the belief that it will line up bar a late setback. These weren't the situations where you could not resist getting stuck into a fiercely competitive handicap seven weeks before the event in the knowledge that there was one more prep run left that could result in a disappointing run that would rule the animal out of the main contest, or if it came through the prep satisfactory it was still likely to get stuffed in the main target race given the nature of those big money handicaps - nope, we accepted that. One could also accept a horse doing a Levaramoss or a Vodkatini after the flag went up at the start. What ranked most was placing money on an animal when it was already known by one side that it would not get to the post.

There are many examples from the past. One from what I'd call the crossover period, the time when a few had started to move to the exchanges but just before the masses moved across in 2003. Next Desert has looked a serious Arc contender when winning the Deutches Derby at Hamburg in July, a race where the consistent Queen's Vase winner and St Leger hopeful was a well beaten fifth. 

Next Desert was reportedly being readied for the Arc for which he was quoted around the 16/1 mark in the books. Many of us would have supported him a couple of weeks before trial weekend at the general price he was being quoted at. We knew and accepted if he flopped in the trials we'd  be on a non runner, we knew and accepted that if he sustained an injury before the race we'd be on a non runner, we hoped that he'd win or go very close in his trial race and shorten up for the big one - what we did not know is that those accepting the bet already knew that the horse had sustained a setback and was already almost certainly a non runner, for those who had discovered the exchanges would have been aware he was available at four times the price!

This takes you back to the days when the ante- post markets were very buoyant and how the books must have given clear indications that a certain prominently priced animal would not be lining up. Remember, these would have been times when most trainers did not belive they had any responsibility to report a horse prominenty priced up in an ante- post market as a non runner - you often did not discover this until the animal was absent from the next declaration stage. 

Admittedly, trainers can still be slow to reveal that one of their charges at the front end of the market for a big race has encountered a setback and will miss the intended target but back then they took the view it was not the business of anyone not connected to the yard - hence you found out when the name was absent from a forfeit stage.

1978 saw numerous well backed horses in ante post markets withdrawn. The subject made the front page of the Sporting Life ( see image) in a piece penned by John McCririck. The article was a bit crafty in the sense that Try My Best and Leonardo da Vinci would widely have been expected to be withdrawn from the Derby after their respective flops in the 2,000 Guineas and Mecca Dante respectively. But many of the others would have remained priced up as if nowt much was wrong in strong markets when the sudden reduction of levels in support would have been a certain sign they would not be lining up.

That is why when these rare coups are in progress, the instinct deep down should be to hope they are triumphant, fair or not fair.

image from author's scrapbooks 

The final track of a strong throughout, easy listening, enjoy a glass of red album, brought out in 1975 when ante- post markets were strong with animals remaining priced up when their non participation was already certain. The album contains a cover of a song that would become a Rugby Union anthem, and was also the album found on the turntable of Andreas Baader's record player when he was discovered in his cell after committing suicide.