There is a tendency at the moment to take for granted that social habits will pick up where they left off as we emerge from what will hopefully be the last national lockdown. And it's clear that the stakeholders and decision makers in the UK horse racing industry are, as their succession of predecessors did to their cost, clearly taking the popularity of the sport they steer for granted.
This came to mind as I was conversing with an acquaintance who is a lifelong season ticket holder at a popular football club. He holds strong reservations whether those with season tickets will be happy to start coughing up considerable amounts of money again when the clubs begin making requests for the payments to restart.
He is adamant in his belief that many in his position have, like himself, lost the buzz for the modern, sanatised version of the game and are merely going through the motions when they turn up at each game. He points out that the enforced sabbatical will make many realise that they can live without the live match day experience, as well as appreciating the prospect of having extra money staying in their pockets in an uncertain climate.
This potential lack of engagement is something that has not been considered within racing as in light of this week's government announcement laying down a timeline for a return to normality, racecourses have been straight on to the chalkboard working out how to maximize their gains once all of the shackles are released.
They expect more than hope that if the lifting of restrictions unfold as planned, something nearing normal crowds would be back through the gates by July. They will be working out how best to negate potential hiccups with social distancing which although will be reduced back down to one metre, will still be in place in addition to checks on vaccination status, and a notable increase in the number of security staff.
They will similarly have realised that normal raceday routines of the attendees will lack flow as ordering food and drink, and visiting lavatories will be taking notably longer than they already do, something that could turn many off returning at future meetings.
What they haven't planned on is how to address the threat of indifference from those who pack out the summer cult venues and who they will be dependent on, more than ever before, of providing them with some financial relief.
The characters that make up these summer crowds are not as hardy or faithful as football season ticket holders. For starters, they are in the main day trippers out for a social gathering with most prefering other sports over horse racing, and many not really smitten by the sport at all.
Their racecourse activity for the year may, for someone based in the north, look something like, one Friday night and two Saturdays at Chester, two Saturdays at York, one Friday night and one Saturday at Haydock Park, one Saturday and one Bank Holiday at Ripon.
When they attend, they will eat and drink and generally enjoy themselves. And if they do return in the same numbers then given the outdoor space available at most venues, it's fair to guess that certain tracks will manage the large crowd conundrum well. It would be reasonable to assume that York will handle proceedings better than most with Newmarket another venue that will be on the ball.
Cartmell could be problematic given its crammed in holiday crowd, a similar dilemma possibly arising too with the Newton Abbott summer jumping fixtures, but common sense screams out that an outdoor sport with an outdoor crowd, staged in weather that is not conductive to spreading virus, is not going to give the sport a new spate of bad publicity.
However, should the sport be getting so ahead of itself? For how can anyone be so sure that these summer crowds will attend in the same numbers once we approach something near to normality? Is it not reasonable to suspect that a day at the races will be a lower priority than before given that these are people who will have competing family responsibilities and who have been through a sustained period where their children will have suffered and who will be owed a list of promises and treats and days out, none of which will have anything to do with horse racing.
Older family members will be recipients of more dutiful visits and suddenly weekends have other chores or activities that take precedent over a trip with the lads on a charabanc to York. And this is without considering the competition from other sectors of the entertainment industry.
Look at it this way, whether it be a bowling competition on the property of a Scarborough hotel, the summer season comedian circuit passing through Rhyl, a theme park in the Midlands, a cider festival in a Bristol public park, or the Blackpool Airshow; organisers of such events will be on their toes already, valuating their post Covid wellbeing and looking ahead at ways of swiftly getting back on their feet, making their businesses more appealing to a wider customer base, many of whom who would fit the profile that the summer cult crowd racecourses pursue.
And if we get an Indian Summer, the tussle for the day tripping audiences who feel no long term attachment to the events they attend will continue on into September, with for racing, Doncaster's St Leger meeting being the last hurrah of the year for attendees indifferent to the sport on offer.
Anyone who doubts this should try attending a 21st century St Leger day. I have been in the stands watching the feature race itself, a part of the sport's fabric, and witnessed groups not aware or interested in what is evolving before them, many with drinks in hand with their back to the action, some listening to news of the latest footy scores.
That we can be fairly certain that while such sights would have been impossible to find when Lester hit the front on Nijinsky in 1970, they'd have been very noticeable as Camelot and Joseph O'Brien tried in vain to cut down Encke, tells us all we need to know about modern racing's core summer audience and the big mistake it would be to take their custom for granted.
image in public domain
This track from a most wonderful album that would have been bought and brought home to thousands of homes in the summer of 1972. The racecourse attendees would have been a different species to today, and many of the best horses they watched and enjoyed that summer trained by the likes of Noel Murless, Major Hern, Peter Walwyn,Arthur Budgett and Bernard van Cutsem, none of whom would have had this album amongst their record collections.
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